The Booming ICE Futures Market In The National Day Holiday Continued To Be Excited

Although President Trump was "dramatically" infected with COVID-19 during the "National Day" and miraculously recovered and discharged from hospital in three days; Although the US stock market and financial market experienced two scares in just over a week, the market "plummeted"; Although the contract export and shipment of American cotton in 2020/21 of the previous week both declined, ICE cotton futures continued to rise like chicken blood. The main contract not only broke 66 cents/pound again, but also the two previous highs of 66.45 cents/pound and 66.93 cents/pound did not form resistance at all (short sellers voluntarily gave up and retreated). The intraday high once broke 68 cents/pound (68.29 cents/pound) , the target and trend of 70 cents/pound in the last test remain unchanged. Within a week, ICE rose by 5.29%, which is not a big increase. It has won successive victories in the external market, news and fundamentals. The focus of the main contract recovered and stood at 66 cents/pound.

Why does ICE "rise" in the absence of Zheng Mian resonance and a large number of contracted procurement in China? Some foreign and domestic cotton related enterprises and institutions are summarized as follows:

First, during the National Day holiday, the international agricultural product market was full of red flags, and cotton futures were just falling and rising. According to statistics, from September 30 to October 8, global agricultural products such as corn, soybeans, wheat and soybean meal rose by 7.16%, 6.42%, 10.51% and 9.54% respectively, and rubber rose by 4.17%; Second, Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil increased by 2.21% and 2.54% respectively. Under the pull of "One Black" initiative, "One White" responded positively; Third, the adverse weather factors in the main cotton producing areas of the United States continued to ferment, and the backward progress of American cotton picking in 2020/21 supported ICE's easy rise and hard fall, including buyers in China, Pakistan, Vietnam and other countries' growing concerns about the quality, grade and whether American cotton can be delivered on fashion boats this year; Fourth, the Federal Reserve's continuous loose monetary policy and the US government's fiscal stimulus plan accelerated commodity inflation expectations. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell warned on Tuesday that the U.S. economic outlook is "highly uncertain", and too little policy support may lead to more family and enterprise bankruptcies and lead to "recession momentum". Therefore, the industry judges that the minutes of the September Federal Reserve meeting have two major points: expanding the willingness to ease and letting inflation rise; In addition, US President Trump said on Thursday that negotiations between the government and Congress on fiscal stimulus measures have resumed and there is an opportunity to reach an agreement; Fifthly, the orderly promotion of the first phase of the Sino US trade agreement and the faster than expected recovery of cotton consumption demand in Southeast Asia, Turkey, South America and other countries have also made ICE more confident to go up.